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Showing 2 results for Scenario Planning
Mohammad Mahdi Zolfagharzadeh, Dr Ali Zackery, Fateme Zahra Gilani Nezhad, Sina Sedaghat Baghbani, Hamed Nasrolahi, Sina Miari,
Volume 26, Issue 4 (12-2020)
Volume 26, Issue 4 (12-2020)
Abstract
Purpose: Nowadays, public libraries are going through a critical period and turning point, a time when from one hand and based on the environmental trends affecting them, can be a sign of their future elimination, or on the other hand if they enjoy an accurate picture of the future and adopt appropriate strategies, can provide them with a renewed vital opportunity. This issue is related to the necessity of addressing the future of public libraries with an alternative approach which is usually pursued in futures studies.
Method: In the present study, by focusing on the scenario planning method and the Global Business Network approach to it, the effective environmental trends in the future of public libraries have been identified, and then, by using the method of futures workshops with a participatory action research approach and as well as the views of a selected group of librarians, administrators and active members of libraries, possible future scenarios of Iran public libraries have been mapped. Due to the existing restrictions, these workshops were held in the provinces of Tehran, Mazandaran and Fars (two workshops) based on the degree of libraries, and a workshop was also held for the managers and staff.
Findings: In each workshop, five groups designed totally 25 categories of fourfold-scenario based on the choice of two key uncertainties. The research team reached four scenarios through integrating and refining the groups' mentalities, based on the crossing between two high-frequency uncertainties: 1) manner of centralized or decentralized governance 2) the central role of book or 'User experience'. 'Info feed', 'Book pool', 'Info digging' and 'Book mall' are the titles of these four scenarios. The first uncertainty concerns the focus or lack of focus on decision-making, policy-making, planning and implementation in Iran's public libraries, which also affects their financial, budgetary and economic dimensions, such as their expenditure and income patterns. The question which the second uncertainty begs is whether libraries will remain in their current state, which is based solely on books, or whether they will move towards creating a new customer experience? The first integrated scenario, entitled 'Info feed', describes empirical libraries in the realm of state governance. The second integrated scenario, called 'Book pool', and depicts a book-oriented library in a state-governed environment. The third integrated scenario, called 'Info digging' and describes a privately owned empirical library. The fourth integrated scenario, called 'Book mall', depicts a book-based library which operates in a space dominated by the private sector.
Originality/value: Those studies thus far conducted in the field of the future of public libraries, especially in Iran, which have used the scenario approach, have not yet applied the workshop approach and participatory action research, which were used in this research.
Bahareh Farajlou Motlagh, Hossein Moeini, Reyhaneh Sadat Mousavi,
Volume 30, Issue 2 (6-2024)
Volume 30, Issue 2 (6-2024)
Abstract
Objective: The purpose of this research was to provide possible and desirable scenarios for the future of the book publishing industry in Iran, so that all efforts can be mobilized to avoid the unfavorable position and scenario and to realize the favorable and ideal scenario as quickly as possible.
Methodology: The governing paradigm of this research is the qualitative paradigm. In terms of the type of research, it is an applied research and in terms of the type of data, it is qualitative too and the data collection tool is the interview. The statistical population of this research is the book publishing industry experts. The sampling method in this research is the snowball method. Following the theoretical saturation rule, 10 prominent countrywide publishers who are mainly active in Tehran have been interviewed. The Global Business Network (GBN) method, which is the most practical scenario writing method was used to analyze the data.
Results: The findings of this research provide four scenarios for the future of the country's book publishing industry. These four scenarios are development (transformational policies and culture building), waste (transformational policies and lack of culture building), book desert (policies of the past and lack of culture building), and impasse (policies of the past and culture building). These four scenarios were based on the opinions of experts, which were identified and explained for the future of the country's book publishing industry. As it is evident, the development scenario is the desired scenario. It is a scenario in which policies have been transformative and culture building has been carried out at its highest level and this industry has been in its best imagined situation, and the book desert scenario with the most unfavorable situations due to the lack of culture building and the domination of past policies is pessimistic one.
Originality/value: Despite the value and importance of book market, both culturally and economically and profitably, the low per capita position of reading in Iran among the countries of the world and the existence of many challenges and problems in the country's publishing industry necessitate the need to examine this index that is culturally important. Since the research carried out in the field of publishing industry was only an analysis of the current situation at the national or provincial level or they provided some solutions to get out of the challenges, no research has investigated the future and possible scenarios for Iran's book publishing industry. Futures study has been and is one of the most important challenges of researchers and leaders of the country in recent years. Therefore, considering the increasing importance of the mentioned categories, it was decided to investigate the futures study of the market and book publishing in Iran. Of course, there are various methods and tools for futures study and in this research, the scenario-writing method was used, because the best response to deep uncertainty is a type of strategy that is predicted for a future instead of being optimal. It is clear that this method is responsive to many different futures and evolves along with the emergence of new information over time. Today, expert managers know that using the scenario method works much better than the traditional schools of strategic planning. Therefore, the results of this research can greatly help managers and trustees of the field of culture and science in their decisions. Based on the desired scenario (development scenario), some suggestions were made for the formation of this desirable future in clarifying the path and strengthening this industry in the future of publishing in the country.
Methodology: The governing paradigm of this research is the qualitative paradigm. In terms of the type of research, it is an applied research and in terms of the type of data, it is qualitative too and the data collection tool is the interview. The statistical population of this research is the book publishing industry experts. The sampling method in this research is the snowball method. Following the theoretical saturation rule, 10 prominent countrywide publishers who are mainly active in Tehran have been interviewed. The Global Business Network (GBN) method, which is the most practical scenario writing method was used to analyze the data.
Results: The findings of this research provide four scenarios for the future of the country's book publishing industry. These four scenarios are development (transformational policies and culture building), waste (transformational policies and lack of culture building), book desert (policies of the past and lack of culture building), and impasse (policies of the past and culture building). These four scenarios were based on the opinions of experts, which were identified and explained for the future of the country's book publishing industry. As it is evident, the development scenario is the desired scenario. It is a scenario in which policies have been transformative and culture building has been carried out at its highest level and this industry has been in its best imagined situation, and the book desert scenario with the most unfavorable situations due to the lack of culture building and the domination of past policies is pessimistic one.
Originality/value: Despite the value and importance of book market, both culturally and economically and profitably, the low per capita position of reading in Iran among the countries of the world and the existence of many challenges and problems in the country's publishing industry necessitate the need to examine this index that is culturally important. Since the research carried out in the field of publishing industry was only an analysis of the current situation at the national or provincial level or they provided some solutions to get out of the challenges, no research has investigated the future and possible scenarios for Iran's book publishing industry. Futures study has been and is one of the most important challenges of researchers and leaders of the country in recent years. Therefore, considering the increasing importance of the mentioned categories, it was decided to investigate the futures study of the market and book publishing in Iran. Of course, there are various methods and tools for futures study and in this research, the scenario-writing method was used, because the best response to deep uncertainty is a type of strategy that is predicted for a future instead of being optimal. It is clear that this method is responsive to many different futures and evolves along with the emergence of new information over time. Today, expert managers know that using the scenario method works much better than the traditional schools of strategic planning. Therefore, the results of this research can greatly help managers and trustees of the field of culture and science in their decisions. Based on the desired scenario (development scenario), some suggestions were made for the formation of this desirable future in clarifying the path and strengthening this industry in the future of publishing in the country.
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